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The nonlinear filtering problem occurs in many scientific areas. Sequential Monte Carlo solutions with the correct asymptotic behavior such as particle filters exist, but they are computationally too expensive when working with high-dimensional systems. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a more robust method that has shown promising results with a small sample size, but the samples are not guaranteed to come from the true posterior distribution. By approximating the model error with a Gaussian distribution, one may represent the posterior distribution as a sum of Gaussian kernels. The resulting Gaussian mixture filter has the advantage of both a local Kalman type correction and the weighting/resampling step of a particle filter. The Gaussian mixture approximation relies on a bandwidth parameter which often has to be kept quite large in order to avoid a weight collapse in high dimensions. As a result, the Kalman correction is too large to capture highly non-Gaussian posterior distributions. In this paper, we have extended the Gaussian mixture filter (Hoteit et al., Mon Weather Rev 136:317–334, 2008) and also made the connection to particle filters more transparent. In particular, we introduce a tuning parameter for the importance weights. In the last part of the paper, we have performed a simulation experiment with the Lorenz40 model where our method has been compared to the EnKF and a full implementation of a particle filter. The results clearly indicate that the new method has advantages compared to the standard EnKF.  相似文献   
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As marine spatial planning is developing, prompted by the European Union through common principles prescribed in a road map, it is important to disseminate and analyse what has been put forward as the French experience in this field. Hence, the experience of the schémas de mise en valeur de la mer immediately proves to be original in its framework and deeply rooted in French specificities. However, a further analysis of this procedure implemented over several decades highlights the perspectives that would be worth integrating into French and European considerations. This paper thus provides information referring to the SMVM experience, presents an analysis of its results, and attempts to draw lessons from it with regard to recent developments in French marine policy.  相似文献   
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Abstract

Radar quantitative precipitation estimates (QPEs) were assessed using reference values established by means of a geostatistical approach. The reference values were estimated from raingauge data using the block kriging technique, and the reference meshes were selected on the basis of the kriging estimation variance. Agreement between radar QPEs and reference rain amounts was shown to increase slightly with the space–time scales. The statistical distributions of the errors were modelled conditionally with respect to several factors using the GAMLSS approach. The conditional bias of the errors presents a complex structure that depends on the space–time scales and the considered geographical sub-domains, while the standard deviation of the errors has a more homogeneous behaviour. The estimation standard deviation of the reference rainfall and the standard deviation of the errors between radar and reference rainfall were found to have the same magnitude, indicating the limitations of the available network in terms of providing accurate reference values for the spatial scales considered (5–100 km2).
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Guest editor R.J. Moore

Citation Delrieu, G., Bonnifait, L., Kirstetter, P.-E., and Boudevillain, B., 2013. Dependence of radar quantitative precipitation estimation error on the rain intensity in the Cévennes region, France. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (7), 1300–1311. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.827337  相似文献   
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High water demand for domestic use in Douala with over 3 million inhabitants is met mainly by shallow groundwater. Field measurements and water sampling in January 2015 were carried out to examine the major controls on the groundwater composition and spatial view of ions in the water, timing of recharge and link between the recharge process and quality of the water. Fifty-two water samples were analysed for major ions and stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes. Low pH values (3.61–6.92) in the groundwater indicated an acidic aquifer; thus, prone to acidification. The dominant water type was Na–Cl. Nitrate, which exceeded the WHO guide value of 50 mg/l in 22% of the groundwater, poses a health problem. Mass ratios of Cl?/Br? in the water ranged from 54 to 3249 and scattered mostly along the mixing lines between dilute waters, septic-tank effluent and domestic sewage. A majority of the samples, especially the high NO3 ? shallow wells, clustered around the septic-tank effluent-end-member indicating high contamination by seepage from pit latrines; hence, vulnerable to pollution. Stable isotopes in the groundwater indicated its meteoric origin and rapid infiltration after rainfall. The δ18O values showed narrow ranges and overlaps in rivers, springs, open wells and boreholes. These observations depict hydraulic connectivity, good water mixing and a homogeneous aquifer system mainly receiving local direct uniform areal recharge from rainfall. The rapid and diffused recharge favours the leaching of effluent from the pit toilets into the aquifer; hence, the high NO3 ? and Cl? in shallow wells. Silicate weathering, ion exchange and leaching of waste from pit toilets are the dominant controls on the groundwater chemistry. Drilling of deep boreholes is highly recommended for good-quality water supply. However, due the hydraulic connection to the shallow aquifer, geochemical modelling of future effects of such an exploitation of the deeper aquifer should support groundwater management and be ahead of the field actions.  相似文献   
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Numerous examples of reservoir fields from continental and marine environments involve thin‐bedded geology, yet, the inter‐relationship between thin‐bedded geology, fluid flow and seismic wave propagation is poorly understood. In this paper, we explore the 4D seismic signature due to saturation changes of gas within thin layers, and address the challenge of identifying the relevant scales and properties, which correctly define the geology, fluid flow and seismic wave propagation in the field. Based on the study of an outcrop analogue for a thin‐bedded turbidite, we model the time‐lapse seismic response to fluid saturation changes for different levels of model scale, and explore discrepancies in quantitative seismic attributes caused by upscaling. Our model reflects the geological complexity associated with thin‐bedded turbidites, and its coupling to fluid flow, which in turn affects the gas saturation distribution in space, and its time‐lapse seismic imprint. Rock matrix and fluid properties are modelled after selected fields to reproduce representative field models with realistic impedance contrasts. In addition, seismic modelling includes multiples, in order to assess their contribution in seismic propagation through thin gas layers. Our results show that multiples could contribute significantly to the measured amplitudes in the case of thin‐bedded geology. This suggests that forward/inverse modelling involving the flow simulation and seismic domains used in time‐lapse seismic interpretation should account for thin layers, when these are present in the geological setting.  相似文献   
28.
Glacier and ice sheet retreat exposes freshly deglaciated terrain which often contains small‐scale fragile geomorphological features which could provide insight into subglacial or submarginal processes. Subaerial exposure results in potentially rapid landscape modification or even disappearance of the minor‐relief landforms as wind, weather, water and vegetation impact on the newly exposed surface. Ongoing retreat of many ice masses means there is a growing opportunity to obtain high resolution geospatial data from glacier forelands to aid in the understanding of recent subglacial and submarginal processes. Here we used an unmanned aerial vehicle to capture close‐range aerial photography of the foreland of Isfallsglaciären, a small polythermal glacier situated in Swedish Lapland. An orthophoto and a digital elevation model with ~2 cm horizontal resolution were created from this photography using structure from motion software. These geospatial data was used to create a geomorphological map of the foreland, documenting moraines, fans, channels and flutes. The unprecedented resolution of the data enabled us to derive morphological metrics (length, width and relief) of the smallest flutes, which is not possible with other data products normally used for glacial landform metrics mapping. The map and flute metrics compare well with previous studies, highlighting the potential of this technique for rapidly documenting glacier foreland geomorphology at an unprecedented scale and resolution. The vast majority of flutes were found to have an associated stoss‐side boulder, with the remainder having a likely explanation for boulder absence (burial or erosion). Furthermore, the size of this boulder was found to strongly correlate with the width and relief of the lee‐side flute. This is consistent with the lee‐side cavity infill model of flute formation. Whether this model is applicable to all flutes, or multiple mechanisms are required, awaits further study. © 2016 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   
29.
A model for the production and loss of energetic electrons in Jupiter's radiation belt is presented. It is postulated that the electrons originate in the solar wind and are diffused in toward the planet by perturbations which violate the particles' third adiabatic invariant. At large distances, magnetic perturbations, electric fields associated with magnotospheric convection, or interchange instabilities driven by thermal plasma gradients may drive the diffusion. Inside about 10 RJ the diffusion is probably driven by electric fields associated with the upper atmosphere dynamo which is driven by neutral winds in the ionosphere. The diurnal component of the dynamo wind fields produces a dawn-dusk asymmetry in the decimetric radiation from the electrons in the belts, and the lack of obvious measured asymmetries in the decimetric radiation measurements provides estimates of upper limits for these Jovian ionospheric neutral winds. The average diurnal winds are less than or comparable to those on earth, but only modest fluctuating winds are required to drive the energetic electron diffusion referred to above.The winds required to diffuse the energetic particles across the orbit of the satellite lo in a time equal to their drift period are also estimated. If Io is non-conducting, modest winds are required, but if Io is conducting, only small winds are needed. It is concluded that both protons and electrons are diffused in from the solar wind to small distances without serious losses occurring due to the particles being swept up by the satellites.Consideration of proton and electron diffusion in energy shows that once the electrons become relativistic, the ratio of proton to electron energy increases. Thus, if protons and electrons have the same energy in the solar wind, when the electrons reach nMeV, the protons will be nMeV if n ? 1 or n2 MeV if n ? 1. If the proton-to-electron energy ratio is initially, e.g., 5, then these figures are 5n and 5n2, respectively.  相似文献   
30.
This study aimed to reconstruct the history of soil development, ecosystem changes and associated erosional processes in a small mountain lacustrine basin at the decennial to millennial scale. Geochemical proxies of soil evolution were analysed in the Holocene lacustrine sediments and peats from Thyl Lake, Maurienne Valley, French Alps. Podzolization and chemical weathering processes were assessed using secondary Al- and Fe-bearing phases together with major and Rare Earth Elements (REE). The resulting proxy records, spanning ca. 4,400 years between 8.6 and 4.2 cal ka BP, indicate that progressive pedogenesis occurred after deglaciation in a relatively stable subalpine ecosystem. As shown by the associated increase in Al- and Fe-bearing phases and some REE fractions, the establishment of a mixed cembra pine ecosystem from ca. 7.2–6.5 ka BP was associated with enhanced podzolisation processes in the catchment. The progressive soil development was followed by a rapid transformation of the local environment and plant cover (the open waters of the lake were replaced by a confined peat environment) together with changes in forest fire regimes from ca. 6.8 ka BP. Depleted REE patterns, associated with low contents of secondary Al and Fe, suggest a decrease in chemical weathering and podzolization in the catchment at that time, possibly associated with local intensification of weathering and drainage processes in a relatively acidic peat environment. The higher variability of cembra pine and the increased abundance of sedge and other herbaceous plant remains in the lake sediment indicate semi-open vegetation environments from 5.7 cal ka BP onwards. Whereas fire events and plant cover appear to be significantly related, the soil processes seem primarily linked to vegetation composition, and secondarily to changes in fire regime.  相似文献   
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